Assessing Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Soil Erosion Caused by Water in China

Soil erosion poses a significant threat to land conservation, freshwater security, and ocean ecology. Climate change, with rainfall as one of its primary drivers, exacerbates this problem. Therefore, reliably predicting future soil erosion rates and taking into account anthropogenic influences are crucial for policymakers and researchers in the earth-system field. To address this challenge, we have developed a novel framework that combines the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model to estimate erosion rates on a national scale. We used BMA to merge five Regional Climate Models (RCMs), reducing uncertainty in ensemble simulations and improving the plausibility of projected changes in climatic regimes over China under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The RUSLE model was applied to forecast the effects of climate change and land-use change on water erosion in China, using high-resolution climate simulation and prediction inputs. Our findings revealed that under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, average annual soil loss will increase by 21.20% and 33.06%, respectively, compared to the baseline period. Our analysis also demonstrated a clear distinction between the effects of climate change and land-use change on water erosion. Climate change leads to an increase in precipitation, which exacerbates water erosion rates, with contributions ranging from 59.99% to 78.21%. Furthermore, an increase in radiative forcing will further amplify the effects of climate change. The transformation of land from one that has not been disturbed by humans to one that has been exposed to some soil and water conservation measures will have a mitigating effect on water erosion, with a contribution of −6.96% to −4.68%. Therefore, implementing effective soil and water conservation measures can somewhat mitigate the severity of ongoing soil loss. Our findings have significant implications for policymakers seeking to develop national strategies for soil conservation and model developers working to reduce uncertainty in erosion predictions.