Ensuring the safety of processes in complex transport systems based on probabilistic modeling

The article deals with the problem of ensuring the safety of processes related to the functioning of technical systems, the movement of vehicles, the operation of infrastructure on the example of railway transport. The analysis and forecasting of extreme modes leading to the occurrence of dangerous accidents in transport is carried out using probabilistic modeling of random processes in technical systems. In order to build models, the normal and logarithmically normal distributions of the studied characteristics were used, which are in good agreement with the observed statistics for the analyzed random variables. According to the proposed method, the problem of exceeding the permissible level of condensation pressure in heat exchangers of refrigerated rolling stock is taken into account. Recommendations for improving the safety of maintenance of refrigerated sections are given. The problem of ensuring the safe crossing of railway tracks by a team of workers is considered. Taking into account the data of statistical studies, the probabilistic and time indicators of the exit of a team of workers from a dangerous zone are calculated. The developed methodology for probabilistic modeling of transport processes is recommended for analyzing and predicting the risks of dangerous events and ensuring railway transport safety.