Elevation dependence of landslide activity induced by climate change in the eastern Pamirs

The elevation dependence of climate change is unequivocal. Landslides (slides and debris flows) are the key mark of climate change acting on the land cryosphere, and they can pose a severe threat to the downslope or downstream community. However, whether there is an elevation dependence of landslide activity caused by climate change is unknown. In this study, Taxkorgan County in the eastern Pamirs was designated as the target area for studying the elevation dependence of shallow landslide activity. The volume and number of landslides have gradually increased over the last 20 years as the climate has become warmer and wetter. Small-sized ( 50 × 10 3 m 3 ) debris flows caused by the maximum temperature are distributed in areas above the 0 °C isotherm curve. Moreover, the landslides induced by climate change in the study area have a significant elevation dependence. In particular, the number and volume of debris flow affected by the maximum temperature in the areas above the 0 °C isotherm curve gradually increase with elevation. In the future (2020–2049), more small-sized slides will occur below the 0 °C isotherm curve as the climate continues to become warmer and wetter. The number and volume of the large-volume debris flow in the regions above the 0 °C isotherm curve will continuously increase with elevation. Our findings suggest that identifying and predicting the volume, number, and triggering factors of landslides within different elevation intervals should contribute to the more accurate assessment and management of landslide risks at the regional scale.