Trend analysis of hydro-meteorological variables of Islamabad, Pakistan: a spatio-temporal view from Pothohar region

The implications of climate change on water resources are of major concerns worldwide. Arid regions of the world need proper management for the water resources as climatic changes are bringing severe problems for their sustainability. Pothohar area of Pakistan is the most essential in this regard. A data set of 30 years of temperature, precipitation, and river discharge across the Pothohar Plateau were obtained from Pakistan Meteorological Department and Water and Power Development Authority, respectively. Hydro-meteorological data were subjected to a series of statistical methods for detecting trend and abrupt point changes. A rising trend in mean annual temperatures were noticed in all stations with most significant change in Jhelum and Attock stations ( p 0.05). In addition, 2000 and 2001 are drought years in 30 years of time series, and the driest years were seen from 1999 to 2002. The discharge of River Haro and Soan were found downward significantly ( p > 0.05), posing a threatening challenge to the future of water resources in this area. The correlation coefficient test revealed a substantial relationship between mean annual precipitation and river discharge, although the linear regression model demonstrated a diminishing trend with mean annual precipitation. Based on the analysis, it is concluded that modern techniques of irrigation and agriculture should be adopted to protect the future of the Pothohar area from climate change related extreme situations.