Possible Expansion of the Climatic Range of the Mediterranean Fruit Fly Being a Dangerous Fruit Pest

The Mediterranean fruit fly is a significant agroclimatic threat to the fruit production. It can damage up to 80–100% of fruits on 45–78% of agricultural land in some countries. The modern climatic range of the pest is analyzed in the present paper using computational data generated by the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory regional climate model and the global climate model of Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics. The species requirements for climate conditions are: the sum of active temperatures (a threshold is 10°C) above 2700°C; monthly mean temperatures for December–February are positive; monthly precipitation totals in December–February exceed 13 mm. In Russia, such conditions are observed on the Black Sea coast and in a small part of the southern Caspian lowland. The assessment of changes in the climatic range of the pest in 2050–2059 versus 1990–1999 under the RCP8.5 scenario showed the expansion of the climatically suitable territory. The territory will almost completely include such traditional fruit growing regions as the Krasnodar krai, the Republic of Crimea, and the Republic of Adygea. Strict quarantine measures and early resource allocation that quickly suppresses infestations of the Mediterranean fruit fly may be proposed as adaptation measures.