A multi-group analysis of the behavioral intention to ride in autonomous vehicles: evidence from three U.S. metropolitan areas

This paper proposes a well-grounded theoretical model to assess the factors influencing the intention to ride in autonomous vehicles (AVs). The model is based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), which has been decomposed to account for key components of the Diffusion of Innovation (DoI) theory and extended to include other influential attitudinal components (such as driving-related sensation seeking, safety perceptions, environmental concerns, and affinity to innovativeness). The extent to which these factors are expected to affect the diffusion of AVs uniformly across different urban settings is also examined. Data were collected through stated preference surveys targeting adult residents in three metropolitan statistical areas, Chicago (Illinois), Indianapolis (Indiana), and Phoenix (Arizona). Confirmatory factor analysis was conducted to test the validity and reliability of the components included in the theoretical model, followed by the estimation of a multi-group structural equation model. The findings of the measurement model show that the survey questions are measured equally across the three areas, and hence, the theoretical model is transferrable. The results of the structural model suggest that the synergistic effects between TPB and DoI can better explain the behavioral intention to ride in AVs. It was also found that the effect of the TBP components is similar across various areas; however, this is not the case for the DoI components. In general, the findings reinforce the need for wider testing of AV technology in urban areas coupled with public education campaigns to harvest public awareness and acceptance.