Spatial–temporal variations and forecasting analysis of municipal solid waste in the mountainous city of north-western Himalayas

Municipal solid waste management is a growing problem faced by several municipalities and has become a global issue, particularly in mountainous cities of developing countries. This study focuses on the existing pattern of municipal solid waste management (MSWM) and challenges in the mountainous city of Srinagar, Kashmir, India. The study aims at analysing the municipal solid waste composition, spatio-temporal variations of municipal solid waste generated and its management by using ArcGIS mapping software. The annual results of MSW composition revealed high organic waste (53.40%), followed by recyclable (16.79%) and inert waste (23.40%), respectively. Further, the ANOVA statistical analysis in SPSS software was utilized to evaluate the seasonal variations between two seasons (i.e. winter and summer). The results showed a significance between the type of MSW and the season in which MSW was generated ( p = 0.001). Further, the GIS-based spatial maps were generated, viz. ward-wise location, population density, municipal solid waste generation, wastebin density and spatial distribution of open waste points with illegal dumpsites. The spatial map findings showed high-density of MSW generation between (30.04 and 35.65) Mt day −1 in administrative wards of (4, 6, 7, 16, 20, 21, 22 and 23), due to high population density. Furthermore, the forecast trend of MSW generation between 2020 and 2030 was evaluated in Minitab software. Based on forecasted findings, a total of 216,82,10 Mt MS will be generated during the next decade (i.e. 2020–2030). This high-quantity trend of MSW generation indicates that extra pressure will be on the existing MSW system. However, the problems of MSW management can be mitigated by implementing the integrated waste management plan.