The authoritarian trade‐off: A synthetic control analysis of development and social coercion in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region

The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) has recently experienced a series of policies seeking economic development and intensive methods of social coercion. A unique leader, Chen Quanguo, brought these changes to the XUAR in 2016. This paper seeks to examine the effects of Chen's regime. We specifically examine three outcomes: GDP per capita, arrest rates, and spending on public security. Using the synthetic control method, we find that Chen's regime had no significant effect on the development. However, his policies led to much higher rates of arrest and larger spending on public security.