Dairy production in a region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest: interactions between climate, fire, vegetation, and pasture degradation

This study was conducted between 2001 and 2016 and aimed to evaluate the effect of interactions between meteorological variables, pasture burning, and pasture degradation on milk production in dairy cattle in the micro-region of Itapetinga, located in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. The results showed that in 2015, with the occurrence of a strong El Niño event, above-average indices of air temperature, evapotranspiration, and heat foci, and below-average levels of rain and air humidity were observed, which impacted 38.97% of the micro-region’s extremely degraded pastures. The Mann–Kendall test showed decreasing trends in milk production (DPL), temperature and humidity index (UTI), food consumption (RCA), and design rate (TC). These decreases were significant in 11 of the 14 municipalities that make up the micro-region. In correlation analysis, UTI, DPL, RCA, and TC presented very strong correlations among themselves for all the municipalities, with the average air temperature being the variable with the best correlation among these indexes. These results indicate that the development of this activity is still dependent on climatic conditions, thereby directly influencing milk production in the micro-region. Evaluating the interactions between climatic conditions and productivity is of great importance for the sustainability of livestock production as the degradation of pastureland necessitates the search for new production areas, thereby directly impacting biodiversity through the suppression of forest remnants, such as those of the Atlantic Forest.