Plankton size spectra as an indicator of larval success in Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax)

Estimating demographic changes in a population requires the measurement of some minimal combination of several vital rates, including the flux of individuals into a population, the population growth rate, individual growth rates and mortality rates. For larval fishes, the ratio of instantaneous mortality to growth (i.e., their ‘recruitment potential’) has been used to make inferences of cohort trajectory where measures of population growth rates are not attainable. Attaining estimates of mortality and growth is an arduous task, and use of the recruitment potential metric has been limited. Here, we relate size spectra of the broader plankton community to the recruitment potential of simultaneously sampled larval Pacific sardines (Sardinops sagax), from three voyages off eastern Australia. As the size structure of a population is determined by the ratio of mortality to growth, and there is remarkable consistency in size spectra across ecosystems, we test the hypothesis that the recruitment potential of larval fish is reflected in community‐level measures of plankton size spectra. Contrary to expectations, results from this study demonstrate a negative relationship between the slope of the plankton size spectra and the recruitment potential of larval Pacific sardine. However, we also demonstrate several other stronger relationships between recruitment potential and physical oceanographic parameters. Together, results suggest plankton size spectra are unlikely to reflect recruitment potential directly. Incorporating some size‐based aspects of the plankton community into a broader modelling framework with a range of oceanographic parameters could further our ability to determine how larval success varies across a seascape.