Presidential Approval, Crime Victimization, and Feelings of Insecurity in Latin America

This article tests the thesis of clarity of responsibility, present in the theory of economic voting, through an analysis of public security. It seeks to measure how presidential approval in Latin America is affected by perceptions of insecurity and experiences of crime victimization. Using multilevel models, we also consider the different institutional arrangements for public security based on the constitutional assignment of responsibility. Our hypothesis is that this institutional variable affects presidential approval. We used data from the 2016/2017 and 2018/2019 rounds of the AmericasBarometer. The results confirm the relevance of the two metrics of security in presidential approval in Latin America. We also note that when the responsibility for this area of public policy is exclusive to the national government, the effect that feelings of insecurity and crime victimization have on presidential approval tends to increase.