A model framework to investigate the role of anomalous land surface processes in the amplification of summer drought across Ireland during 2018

Due to its latitude and ample year‐round rainfall, Ireland is typically an energy‐limited regime in the context of soil moisture availability and evapotranspiration. However, during the summer of 2018, regions within the country displayed significant soil moisture deficits, associated with anomalous atmospheric forcing conditions, with consequent impacts on the surface energy balance. Here, we explore the utility of a physically based land surface scheme coupled with observational, global gridded reanalysis and satellite‐derived data products to analyse the spatial and temporal evolution of the 2018 summer drought event in Ireland over grassland, which represents the dominant agricultural land‐cover. While the surface–air energy exchanges were initially dominated by atmospheric anomalies, soil moisture constraints became increasingly important in regulating these exchanges, as the accumulated rainfall deficit increased throughout the summer months. This was particularly evident over the freer draining soils in the east and southeast of the country. From late June 2018, we identify a strong linear coupling between soil moisture and both evapotranspiration and vegetation response, suggesting a shift from an energy‐limited evapotranspiration regime into a dry or soil water‐limited regime. Applying segmented regression models, the study quantifies a critical soil moisture threshold as a key determinant of the transition from wet to dry evaporative regimes. These findings are important to understand the soil moisture context under which land–atmosphere couplings are strongest in water‐limited regimes across the country and should help improve the treatment of soil parameters in weather prediction models, required for subseasonal and seasonal forecasts, consequently enhancing early warning systems of summer climate extremes in the future. Drought‐induced perturbations in land surface processes are largely not effective until the period between late June/early July and extend to mid‐July in some cases. The east and southeast regions are dominated by regime shift where drying soils shifted the grass landscape into a dry regime in which evaporation is limited by soil moisture. The study found significant critical soil moisture content at which land–atmosphere signals potentially become hypersensitive in the east and southeast zone, based on ERA5‐Land.