A critical analysis of the effect of projected temperature and rainfall for differential sowing of maize cultivars under RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios for Punjab

A simulation study was conducted for two maize cultivars (PMH1 and PMH2) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in four agroclimatic zones of Punjab state of India where climate change depicts a consistent rise in temperature and variability in rainfall. The temperature and rainfall varied from location to location so agroclimatic zone II (Ballowal Saunkhri), zone III (Ludhiana, Amritsar, and Patiala), zone IV (Bathinda), and zone V (Abohar and Faridkot) were selected for the study. The bias-corrected ensemble model data from seventeen global circulation models (GCMs) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 was used to simulate maize yield for a period of 70 years (2025–2095) using calibrated and validated CERES-Maize model. The simulated yield trend in Punjab under current dates of sowing indicated a strong negative correlation between the yield and the weather parameters under the two scenarios. Agroclimatic zones II, III, and V (Faridkot) observed an increase in temperature by 1 °C over the 70 years’ time period which led to lowering of the maize yield from high yield category (> 5000 kg/ha) to low (