Analysis of the level of suitability of the average-based fuzzy time series method for predicting national salt production

Based on data obtained from the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries reported by kompas.com, in 2021, Indonesia will import 3.07 million tons of salt. This is because the stock from local salt farmers is insufficient and does not meet the quality for industrial salt standards. Variables that affect the amount of salt production and quality in Indonesia are Nino 3.4, negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). These two variables will affect the dry season that will occur in the form of wet or dry drought. If the dry season is wet, the national salt production will decrease which will result in crop failure. The Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries (KKP) has predicted national salt using several methods. However, the results of the salt prediction are still not able to approach the number of predictions of national salt accurately. Thus, in this study, the Average-Based Fuzzy Time Series method was used.