Financial Portfolio And Economic Growth In Colombia. An Error Correction Model Summary

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between economic growth and Colombian financial portfolio quality institutions during the second decade of the 21st century for forecasting purposes, by means of an econometric error correction model using quarterly information for the period between 2011-I and 2020-III, both of gross domestic product and of the gross and past-due portfolio of financial institutions. The estimation of the model was executed using the econometric program Eviews 10 with the intervention of two variables. The first one consists of the seasonally natural logarithm adjusted gross domestic product [LPIBD] and the second corresponds to the portfolio quality indicator defined as the ratio of the past-due portfolio to the gross portfolio [INCALID]. The results reveal that the variables are integrated of order 1 and are co-integrated, making it possible to estimate the model with three lags, which added to the unidirectional causality in the Granger sense, allowed predicting the portfolio quality of financial institutions for the fourth quarter of 2020 and establishing the short- and long-term dynamics.