Conflict and cooperation in Aras International Rivers Basin: status, trend, and future

The transboundary Aras River basin is shared by Turkey, Armenia, Iran, and Azerbaijan. The water resources of the basin have been the basis for major economic activity that has been associated with different hydropolitical interactions of the riparian states. This study investigated the status and trends of these interactions from the perspectives of cooperation and conflict as well as their possible future. The records of the water events of the Aras basin from the IWED (International Water Event Database) database and other creditable sources for four periods from 1926 to 2021 were assessed. The interactions were temporally evaluated with respect to type and dynamics using the TWINS (Transboundary Waters Interaction Nexus) framework. The results showed that basin gains from numerous agreements, joint water projects, and joint technical commissions initially were the grounds for cooperation. However, the Nagorno–Karabakh terrestrial conflict and its anticipated consequences on the geopolitics of the basin as well as water quality and upstream water projects could produce additional conflict. The TWINS analysis revealed that 70% of the water interactions were at the non-politicization or politicization levels, indicating the basin experienced a relatively positive cooperative status (mainly subperiods 1 and 3). However, the remaining 30% of events fell into the securitization or violation levels in recent years (subperiod 4). This indicates that the basin is susceptible to moving towards more conflict.