Relationship between the Fluence of Magnetospheric Electrons with Energies above 2 MeV and Geomagnetic and Interplanetary Characteristics in 1987–2021

Coefficients of correlation are calculated for the daily electron fluence, solar wind velocity, and the Ар -index of geomagnetic activity with different delays, along with electron fluences obtained for subsequent days using a dataset from 35 years (1987–2021) of measuring magnetospheric electron fluxes with energies of more than 2 MeV in geostationary orbits, solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic activity. A three-parameter model is developed that allows the fluence of high-energy magnetospheric electrons for the next day to be predicted on the basis of the prehistory of the behavior of the fluence, data on the Ap -index of geomagnetic activity, and measurements of the solar wind speed. Model calculations are in good agreement with experimental data with a high coefficient of correlation (0.82) for the period 1987–2021.