A STUDY ON THE PROJECTED RANGE OF FUTURE CHANGES IN RIVER DISCHARGE BASED ON A LARGE ENSEMBLE CLIMATE SIMULATION

Future changes in river discharge were calculated for the Omono River from the d4PDF rainfall data, which consists of 1500 years of past experiments and 5400 years of future experiments, and a rainfall-runoff inundation model. The results were generally consistent with the estimation by the Ministry. The range of the projections is analyzed in terms of three factors: the rainfall event extraction method based on the rainfall duration, the SST pattern, and the upstream/downstream. This study shows that it is important to consider the difference between the SST results and the upstream/downstream results when examining the magnitude of future changes in river discharge based on large ensemble climate projections.