Does Uncertainty of Trade Environment Promote Green Technological Innovation? Empirical Evidence from China

In recent years, the international environment has changed rapidly, and the uncertainty of the trade environment faced by enterprises has dramatically increased. As a major participant in world trade, the uncertainty of the trade environment has significantly impacted the daily business activities and various behaviors of Chinese manufacturing enterprises. Green technology innovation has also become an important tool for enterprises to enhance their sustainable development ability and improve their ability to cope with changes in the external environment. The change in the trade environment will affect the business development of enterprises. To face the change in the trade environment, enterprises often choose to improve their technology level and increase the added value of their products. In the context of sustainable development, green technology innovation has higher technical strength and is more in line with the requirements of international development, which is strong support for enterprises to cope with the change in the trade environment. However, the current literature is scant on the association between trade uncertainty and green innovation. In this context, this study used the data of Chinese manufacturing listed companies from 2011 to 2020 to empirically analyze the relationship between trade environment uncertainty (UTE) and green technology innovation (GTI) using panel data estimation methods and further explore the related heterogeneity and its impact on sustainable development. The results show that: (1) UTE has a significant positive impact on the GTI of enterprises, and the robustness test verifies these findings. Different kinds of UTE have different effects on enterprise GTI. UTE also has a positive impact on the independent GTI of enterprises. (2) Compared with non-state-owned enterprises, the GTI of state-owned enterprises is more vulnerable to the positive impact of UTE. (3) UTE significantly and negatively impacts enterprises’ business activities and further challenges enterprises’ sustainable development. However, the enterprise’s GTI behavior, especially the substantial GTI, helps mitigate the adverse impact of UTE on the company’s sustainable development. Finally, this paper provides targeted suggestions for enterprises to better cope with UTE and improve their sustainable development capabilities.