COVID-19 Pandemic and Violence: Contagions and Curfew Policy on Female Homicides

This article studies the causal effect of COVID-19 pandemic curfew and lockdown durations on gender violence measured by the female homicides rates across Ecuadorian municipalities. To overcome potential endogeneity concerns due to heterogeneous intensity in restriction durations, we implement an instrumental variable approach that adjusts the duration of the lockdown and each of the “red-light” policy stages based on the lags of contagion rates and the length of the policy. We show that the generalized lockdown led to a 0.91 percentage point increase of female homicide rates (12.75% in the prelockdown period), and the less restrictive mobility measures led to a 0.23 to 0.8 pp increases. These results are in line with very recent evidence of the COVID-19 lockdowns and violence against women during the pandemic. These findings appeal for policy interventions addressed to avoid violence against women during mobility restriction and emergencies.