Solution of the SIR mathematical model with births and deaths for COVID-19 spread using microsoft excel

This study aims to find the solution of SIR (susceptible, infectious and recovered) modelling which considers natural births and deaths for the spread of Covid-19 in.populations of an area for normal, new normal and lockdown conditions using Microsoft Excel. This research consists two stages, 1) study the numerical solution SIR model using spreadsheet of Microsoft Excel, and 2) build Microsoft Excel Applets for simulation of the system. The results show that the SIR model with consider births and deaths for spread of Covid-19 can be solved numerically by Microsoft Excel, by changing the system of differential equations into system of difference equations. Furthermore, by using existing facilities in Microsoft Excel, the Microsoft Excel Applets can be built to simulate system in normal, new normal, and lockdown conditions. The simulation shows there are 58% individual are infected in normal condition. In new normal and lockdown conditions there are respectively 28% and 6% individuals who are infected by Covid-19. Pandemic peak also can be predicted by this model. In Normal condition, pandemic peak at Seventh week. In New normal and lockdown condition, the pandemic peak occurs at eleventh ant sixth week respectively.