Assessment and Prediction of Urban Expansion Using CA-Based SLEUTH Urban Growth Model: A Case Study of Kolkata Metropolitan Area (KMA), West Bengal, India

Unplanned and rapidly increasing urbanization has been observed worldwide, especially in developing countries which causes manifest many environmental issues. The Indian cities have experienced rapid urban growth due to increased population, migration activities, economic development, capitalization, and rising of services and amenities over the last few decades which would led to the expansion of the city structure toward peri-urban areas. Therefore, it causes environmental degradation like landscape fragmentation, adverse effects on urban ecological balance, urban climate change, etc. This paper aims to study the spatiotemporal urban dynamics of the Kolkata Metropolitan Area (KMA) in terms of urban development trends over the year 2031. The research study has focused on land use/land cover change and incorporated it with an open-source SLEUTH model to predict future urban scenarios. SLEUTH was applied two two parts of KMA such as North KMA and South KMA to compare the urban growth. The model initiation with calibration showed a high value of the spreading coefficient indicating the organic type of growth has happened. New urban centers have grown along with the road networks in the northern part of KMA. Spontaneous growth is noticed in the study area. Urban growth is spreading toward the peripheral areas of Kolkata city over the periods. Therefore, the city and suburban areas have become compact. SLEUTH urban growth model can be considered as a planning-oriented model that would help planners to plan the Kolkata agglomeration city based on future scenarios. Sustainable policies can be introduced in those areas where the compact urbanization challenges are more.