Simulation of Land Use Change and Habitat Quality in the Yellow River Basin under Multiple Scenarios

Habitat quality is the key to regional ecological restoration and green development, and land use change is an essential factor affecting habitat quality. Studying the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use change and habitat quality under multiple scenarios is significant for regional ecological restoration and management, and for preventing future ecological and environmental risks. We used the improved Logistic-CA-Markov (Logistic-Cellular Automata-Markov) and InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) models to establish the spatial patterns of habitat quality in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2040 and analyzed the characteristics of land use and habitat quality changes under scenarios of natural development (S1), ecological protection (S2), and urban expansion (S3). The results showed that in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, the main land use types in the watershed were dryland and grassland, accounting for more than 72%. Paddy land, dryland, woodland, middle-coverage grassland, and unused land all showed decreasing trends, whereas all other land types showed increasing trends. Influenced by human activities and the environment, the watershed habitat quality was low, with 80% of the areas with middle to low grades, but the overall trend was rising. The spatial variability in habitat quality of the watershed was significant, with habitat quality improvements in the central and northern regions and continued deterioration around the cities in the southern and western parts. The spatial autocorrelation and aggregation of habitat quality in the watershed were strong, and future land use patterns in the study area had a significant relationship with human activities. Simulation of future scenarios revealed ecological conservation catalytic effects on habitat quality in the study area, whereas urban expansion deteriorated watershed habitat quality. This study could provide support for future ecological conservation decisions.