The determination of earthquake sources contribution in the study of Seismic hazards for liquefaction of prospective sites for nuclear power plant, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

Earthquake hazard deaggregation is needed to estimate the earthquake parameters, both magnitude (M) and distance (R) which gives the most significant contribution to the resulting maximum acceleration and is also helpful as a determining parameter in the selection of earthquake time history for site response analysis in liquefaction studies. The research stages include collecting and processing seismic data, modeling earthquake sources, selecting attenuation functions, managing uncertainty elements, calculating earthquake hazards using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), and disaggregating PSHA results. This paper describes the information about the probabilistic seismic distribution of earthquake sources based on the magnitude and distance of the earthquake, which gives the highest contribution to the seismic hazard map. At a certain magnitude and distance, its combination can produce liquefaction potential. The implementation of disaggregation in the Bishkek area was calculated based on maximum ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.1-second spectra acceleration in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, which was carried out for the probability of exceeding 10% in 50 years (earthquake return period of 475 years) and 2% in 50 years. (earthquake return period 2,475 years). In the 500 year return period for both PGA and 0.1-second spectra, the mean magnitude value is 6.23, while for the 2500 return period, it is 7.25. Seismic disaggregation map for the Bishkek area, Kyrgyzstan for PGA at the mean Magnitude value varies between 4.25 – 7.25, while the mean distance (R) value varies from 14.89 – 45.35 km. Areas far from active faults will be predominantly affected by earthquakes from the background, whereas areas close to active faults will be affected by earthquakes originating from thrust faults.