Wheat yield responses to rising temperature: insights from northern plains of India

Climate change and consequent variations in temperature pose a significant challenge for sustaining wheat production systems globally. This study analyzed the potential impact of rising temperature on wheat yield in the north Indian plains, India’s central wheat-growing region, using panel data from 1981 to 2009. This study deviates from most previous studies by including non-climatic factors in estimating the impact of climate change. To determine the differential impact of increased temperature at various growth stages, two temperature measures were used to fit the function, Growing Season Temperature (GST), and Terminal Stage Temperature (TST). Analysis revealed that there was a significant rise in both GST and TST during the study period. The magnitude of the annual increment in TST was twice that of GST. Wheat yield growth in the region was driven primarily by increased input resources such as fertilizer application and technological development like improved varieties and management practices. Most importantly, the study found that the extent of yield reduction was more significant for an increase in temperature at terminal crop growth stages. The estimated yield reduction due to unit increase in TST was 2.26%, and GST was 2.03%.