Summary of the worldwide available crop disease risk simulation studies that were driven by climate change scenarios and published during the past 20years

Here, published crop disease risk simulations are summarized, which were driven by climate change scenarios on a timescale terminating between 2001 and 2100. Thirty different agricultural and horticultural crops were specifically considered. Wheat diseases (mainly leaf rust) were most often simulated, followed by rice diseases (mainly leaf blast), grapevine diseases (mainly downy mildew) and potato diseases (mainly late blight). Most simulations suggest that within the projection period simulated, crop disease risk will more often increase (86 simulations) than decrease (45 simulations) or remain similar (12 simulations). The majority of crop disease risk simulations focus on Europe and Brazil. For example, there is agreement across crop disease risk simulations that in Europe the risk of leaf rust of wheat will increase. In other cases, there is disagreement across crop disease risk simulations, for example, due to contemporary climatic differences of locations. Therefore, it is risky to extrapolate results across locations. Mitigation and adaptation methods should be more often integrated in the crop disease risk simulations in order to inform about potential methods to reduce disease risk in future.