DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM WAVES FORECASTING SYSTEM USING THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST AND EVALUATION OF IT’S APPLICABILITY

In recent years, powerful typhoons such as Typhoon JEBI(1821) and Typhoon FAXAI(1915) have hit the densely populated areas of the inner bay, causing enormous damage due to storm waves. Therefore, in order to support quick and reliable evacuation activities in the event of typhoons, we have developed storm waves forecasting system that can take into account the uncertainty of the typhoon forecast using the ensemble forecast distributed by the Japan Meteorological Agency. This system can provide users with the detailed information at an early stage by combining the coarse predictions and the fine predictions. We also examined the applicability of this system for Typhoon FAXAI(1915) and Typhoon HAGIBIS(1919). As a result, it was found that the ensemble forecast can predict the storm waves risk more reliably. However, we have shown that the predicted wave height may underestimate in case of using GEPS(Global Ensemble Predict System) for small typhoons or when the initial time is 12 hours before the peak.