Understanding Divorce Trends and Risks: The Case of Norway 1886–2018

Divorces have become common, but reliable longer-run historical data with several years of follow-up are scarce. This study investigates divorce trends and divorce risk based on prospective data for all Norwegian different-sex marriages formed from 1886–2018, with yearly follow-up continuing until 60 years after the wedding (N = 2.7 million). First marriages and remarriages are investigated separately, as are marriages in rural and urban areas. The results indicate a general decline in divorce risk, but not in rural areas. The previously suggested impacts of age-at-marriage and remarriage on divorce risk are questioned.