A new model for calculating rational failure rates based on network assets worth

The rational failure rate estimation has always been a great challenge in electric power distribution companies' regulatory. To prevent risk creation for companies and guarantee their encouragement to improve the distribution system's reliability, companies should calculate the failure rate by approximation and low error. Several factors influence the failure rate, including asset life, geographical factors, clash culture with installations, urban planning, etc. On the other hand, the history of investing in this system can also cause high exhaustion in assets. It is virtually impossible to consider all these factors and achieve a rational failure rate. Also, insufficient investment in the past years of electricity distribution companies is an important factor in asset aging and determining the failure rate. On the other hand, the company's investment trend is affected by the accepted failure rate of the regulator for each distribution company. In this paper, using the investment process and the total worth of assets of power distribution companies in each year, a model is presented to estimate the failure rate of the network. The failure rate calculated with this model can divide the budget between power distribution companies by the regulator and determine the rewards and penalties.