Contributions of Sociodemographic Changes to the Increase in Permanent Childlessness in Brazil: A Cohort Decomposition Analysis

The percentage of women who reach the end of their reproductive years without children increased by 40% in Brazil among birth cohorts from 1941–1945 to 1966–1970. This growing trend was accompanied by changes in the composition and association of variables such as education level and conjugal status. This study seeks to analyze the contribution of changes in the composition and rate components (reproductive behavior) to the percentage increase in permanent childlessness in Brazil. The data used was obtained from six birth cohorts (1941–1970) of women aged between 40 and 49 years from the 1991, 2000, and 2010 Brazilian Censuses. The methods used included binary logistic models and a decomposition technique based on logistic regression. Composition and rate components contributed to the percentage increase in permanent childlessness in Brazil, with composition changes having a slightly greater effect. Specifically, more significant effects were due to changes in the composition of women with incomplete primary education and in the reproductive behavior of women who were living or had lived with a spouse. The results of this study indicate a weakening/disconnection of the association between conjugal status and reproduction in Brazil, and an increase in permanent childlessness associated with socioeconomic advantage and women’s choices. This is the first study to decompose the associated (rate) and compositional factors to explain the increase in permanent childlessness in a Latin American country. Moreover, the results were compared with those obtained from developed countries such as the United States and Spain.