Decarbonization of EU energy sector: techno-feasibility analysis of 100% renewables by 2050 in Cyprus

Cyprus continues to be one of the European Union’s most energy import-dependent countries. It is of worthy note that Cyprus is also the only European Union member state whose electricity grid is not connected to the European power network, as it uses an independent network that relies on local production. The high cost of electricity has been identified as a top problem, and officials on the island are looking at several ways to lower electricity rates. Increasing the amount of renewable energy is one of the main options being looked at. Furthermore, in a bid to meet the European Union target of 40% renewable energy electricity generation, Cyprus needs to fully utilize the vast renewable energy potential in the region. In this study, the integration of dominant renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and concentrated solar power) to the thermal power run grid system is simulated. Also, a 100% renewable energy electricity generation for 2050 is also modelled. The analysis is done, for a projected 8.3TWh/year of electricity demand, in the ENERGYPLAN simulation environment. The deterministic factors considered in this study are the power production and critical excess electricity production. Eight (8) case scenarios were developed in this study for comparative discourse of most feasible electricity generation to cut down on carbon dioxide emission in Cyprus. The optimized analysis reveals that the best case scenario for electricity generation for 2050 is Photovoltaic system integrated with the oil powered plants. This system (Photovoltaic/Oil) would generate 1.68TWh/year of renewable energy electricity. For 100% renewable energy electricity generation, the most feasible option is the Photovoltaic/Wind/storage system. This system would have an installed 4000 MW PV capacity, 7500 MW wind capacity and 30GWh storage capacity. This study gains significance as the results will give valuable technical and economic parameters that can inform policy changes in the region. Graphical abstract