The effect of seasonal work visas on native employment: Evidence from US farm work in the Great Recession

Evidence on the labor‐market effect of immigration focuses on permanent migrants, though a large share of international labor mobility is temporary and seasonal. This paper estimates the marginal native employment effect of policy restrictions on foreign seasonal farm workers in the United States. It exploits two natural experiments: a legal requirement to give hiring preference to natives, and an exogenous change in natives' next‐best employment options during the Great Recession of 2007–2008. The local elasticity of natives' occupational labor supply is 0.0015, implying a minimal marginal effect of seasonal work visa restrictions on native employment.