Spatial autoregressive quantile regression as a tool for modelling human development index factors in 2020 East Java

The Human Development Index (HDI) is a substantial indicator used to assess the effectiveness in efforts to build the quality of human life. The basic components used to measure the achievement of human development were long and healthy life, knowledge, and a decent standard of living. In 2020, East Java is ranked 15th out of 34 provinces in Indonesia with an HDI of 71.71 which makes it into the "high" category. In this study there is a spatial unit, so the data analysis is not accurate when using merely the linear regression analysis, thus the spatial analysis is applied. The most popular model in spatial analysis is Spatial Autoregressive (SAR). The factors that are thought to influence may have different effects at each quantile level and region, hence the analysis which can be used is Spatial Autoregressive Quantile Regression (SARQR). The highest HDI value in East Java is in Surabaya City at 82.23 and the lowest is in Sampang Regency at 62.70. The results of the SARQR model at the 0.50th quantile show that the model can explain the HDI in East Java in 2020 by 94.3% seen from the R2 value and the AIC value of 2.141. The results of the analysis using SARQR modeling obtained the best model, namely the 0.50th quantile, indicating that the factors that affect the HDI value in East Java in 2020 are the percentage of the population (X1), the average non-food expenditure (X3), and crime. (X4).