Economic Risk Potential of Infrastructure Failure Considering In-Land Waterways

Purpose—Unreliable transport infrastructure can cause negative externalities for industries. In this article, we analyze how the private sector is affected by infrastructure failure of public transport infrastructure, using waterways as an example. Methodology—To investigate the affectedness of riparian industries, we chose two complementary parallel approaches: A proximity analysis via GIS, and a concluding survey among the identified waterway-dependent industries. An exemplary application is validated by stakeholders. Findings—We identify a predominance of location preferences in dependence on waterways for mining, chemical, and metal industries. Their risk tolerance exhibits potentially severe impacts on industries if reliable transport cannot be ensured via waterways, as our paper provides essential insights into the relationship between infrastructure failure and company decisions. Most importantly, we reveal that a lack of alternatives due to missing capacities of other transport modes causes realistic threats to business locations. Practical implications—include that a regional focus is crucial for the empirical risk assessment of transport infrastructure. Hence, the data collection should relate to the regional focus groups, particularly the directly affected industries. In addition, infrastructure maintenance should integrate a risk focus and consider the short and long-run impacts on industries.