Impact of Climate Change on Cocoa Production in Africa: An Approach of Cross-sectional ARDL

Agricultural development has been universally recognized as a critical component of the growth of emerging countries. West and Central African countries have traditionally relied heavily on agriculture to provide food, raw materials for other industries, and employment opportunities. However, anthropogenic causes, including the combustion of fossil fuels, have led to a significant change in the climate around the planet in recent years. This climate change is mainly due to greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions. This issue can be worsened by the increasing vulnerability of the croplands to environmental changes. This study is carried out to investigate the impact of climate change on cocoa production among cocoa-producing countries in the world. The study employed annual data from 1961 to 2018 from the World Bank and Food and Agriculture database. The study employed cross-sectional-autoregressive distributed lag to account for heterogeneity. The study revealed that carbon emissions, average rainfall, and average temperature positively impact cocoa in the long and short run. Cocoa production increases by 0.075, 0.047, 0.63, and 0.36 percent for every percentage point rise in carbon dioxide emissions and average rainfall for all cocoa-producing countries in Africa, both in the short and long run, respectively. The study, however, found that temperature and labor force have no adverse impact on cocoa production. The study revealed that the effects of cocoa on various factors such as temperature and rainfall were not homogeneous. It supports the idea that cocoa production significantly affects these factors in Africa. Uncertainties about climate change will be an unprecedented issue in the agriculture sector when immediate measures are not taken. Hence, the study recommends that the cocoa-producing countries' governments introduce attractive crop insurance products that can serve as a hedge against climate change. Highlights 1. The significant impact of agriculture on economic and social life is incomparable to any. The pros of the agriculture sector to the development of both developed and developing countries heavily outweigh its cons. Agriculture growth is determined mainly by crop production. Due to the varying physical and economic conditions that affect the farming industry, it can be very challenging to operate successfully as it is also prone to experiencing various risks. The high dependence on the natural environment and the market conditions can cause huge