Migration patterns, friendship networks, and the diaspora: the potential of Facebook Social Connectedness Index to anticipate displacement patterns induced by Russia invasion of Ukraine in the European Union

The conflict in Ukraine is causing large-scale displacement in Europe and in the World. Based on the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates, more than 7 million people fled the country as of 5 September 2022. In this context, it is extremely important to anticipate where these people are moving so that national to local authorities can better manage challenges related to their reception and integration. This work shows how innovative data from social media can provide useful insights on conflict-induced migration flows. In particular, we explore the potential of Facebook's Social Connectedness Index (SCI) for predicting migration flows in the context of the war in Ukraine, building on previous research findings that the presence of a diaspora network is one of the major migration drivers. To do so, we first evaluate the relationship between the Ukrainian diaspora and the number of refugees from Ukraine registered for Temporary Protection or similar national schemes as a proxy of migratory flows into the EU. We find a very strong correlation between the two (Pearson's r=0.94, p