Fractional mathematical modeling analysis for COVID-19 spread

The first corona virus disease case was reported in Wuhan City, China in December 2019 and spreads worldwide very quickly. On 9th March 2020, World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as a global pandemic. Mathematical models can be very effective in understanding the transmission patterns of COVID-19. This paper proposes a fractional-order susceptible, exposed, infected, asymptomatic, hospitalized, removed (SEIAHR) model. The fractional models help understand the disease epidemic. To formulate its fractional derivative, we consider the Caputo operator and discuss the uniqueness and existence of the solution for the model by applying the Banach contraction mapping principle. We performed numerical simulation by the Adams- Bashforth-Moulton method, which shows that the fractional models provide a better understanding and more biological insights about the dynamics of disease than traditional integer-order models.