Ensuring representativity of scenario sets: The importance of exploring unknown unknowns

This paper presents methodological results from a scenario project about the linkages between changing geopolitics and sustainability. If one wishes to take wise long-term investment decisions in such domains one should strive for turning important ‘unknown unknowns’ into analysable ‘known unknowns’. As outlined in the paper we see this capability as one of several requirements for representative scenario sets in the mentioned type of planning situation. Based on these requirements, a novel scenario methodology called structural variables intuitive logics (SV-IL) was developed. Starting from an in-depth critique of the well-known ‘scenario matrix’ technique, SV-IL brings together the intuitive logics approach for combining imagination and judgment, with elements of cross impact methodology to further enhance representativity. The core element is a workshop format where small expert teams are tasked to make sense of well-defined scenario seeds by iteratively developing event-based storylines and their resulting end-states. This allows path dependence to emerge based on each scenario’s storyline. The states are modelled by influence diagrams with circular causality (feedback) a key element that helps generate persistent scenarios forming useful starting points for understanding potential future societies. Making the well-defined seeds diverse led to distinctive scenarios which benefits broad exploration of potential futures. •Addresses long-term investment aspects of societal transformation.•Demystifies unknown unknowns, black swans, etc.•Links scenario methodology to key social science concepts: path dependence, human agency, circular causality.•Relates to two leading scenario traditions: intuitive logics and cross impact (balances).•Provides concrete information on project and workshop design.