Prediction of lung cancer immunotherapy response via machine learning analysis of immune cell lineage and surface markers

Although advances have been made in cancer immunotherapy, patient benefits remain elusive. For non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), monoclonal antibodies targeting programmed death-1 (PD-1) and programmed death ligand-1 (PD-L1) have shown survival benefit compared to chemotherapy. Personalization of treatment would be facilitated by a priori identification of patients likely to benefit. This pilot study applied a suite of machine learning methods to analyze mass cytometry data of immune cell lineage and surface markers from blood samples of a small cohort (n= 13) treated with Pembrolizumab, Atezolizumab, Durvalumab, or Nivolumab as monotherapy. Four different comparisons were evaluated between data collected at an initial visit (baseline), after 12-weeks of immunotherapy, and from healthy (control) samples: healthy vs patients at baseline, Responders vs Non-Responders at baseline, Healthy vs 12-week Responders, and Responders vs Non-Responders at 12-weeks. The algorithms Random Forest, Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis, Multi-Layer Perceptron, and Elastic Net were applied to find features differentiating between these groups and provide for the capability to predict outcomes. Particular combinations and proportions of immune cell lineage and surface markers were sufficient to accurately discriminate between the groups without overfitting the data. In particular, markers associated with the B-cell phenotype were identified as key features. This study illustrates a comprehensive machine learning analysis of circulating immune cell characteristics of NSCLC patients with the potential to predict response to immunotherapy. Upon further evaluation in a larger cohort, the proposed methodology could help guide personalized treatment selection in clinical practice.