Anchored strategic reasoning

We propose a model whereby players’ beliefs about the opponents’ reasoning are anchored to an irrelevant number. The model predicts that strategies are adjusted toward the anchor if they are complements. If strategies are substitutes, adjustments away are also possible. •An anchor may influence choices directly or indirectly through beliefs.•In games, both effects have the same sign if choices are strategic complements.•These effects may have the opposite sign if choices are strategic substitutes.