The impact of RMB internationalization on the exchange rate linkages in China and ASEAN countries

This study uses the DCC-GARCH model to analyze the impact of RMB internationalization on exchange rate linkages in China and four ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Indonesia) from 2009 to 2020. The results show that China, as the largest trading partner of ASEAN, has made exchange rate transmission very close between the two economic entities. In the process of RMB internationalization, exchange rate linkages exhibit varying characteristics in distinct stages. In the early stage, the direction of RMB internationalization was unclear, and exchange rate linkages were affected by international capital flows. Afterward, the RMB internationalization, combined with the Belt and Road Initiative, was gradually clarified, promoting a unilateral increase in RMB currency value and a decrease in the linkage level. With the implementation of the initiative, the dividends gradually spread to the four ASEAN countries, bringing the linkages to a peak. Subsequently, unilateral exchange rate reforms of the RMB, such as the '811 exchange rate reform,ʻ reduced linkages. After 2017, the cumulative effects of the reforms in the previous period appear. The RMB internationalization has taken shape in ASEAN, and the stability of the exchange rate linkages has been greatly improved.