Investigating the informativeness of technical indicators and news sentiment in financial market price prediction

Real-time market prediction tool tracking public opinion in specialized newsgroups and informative market data persuades investors of financial markets. Previous works mainly used lexicon-based sentiment analysis for financial markets prediction, while recently proposed transformer-based sentiment analysis promise good results for cross-domain sentiment analysis. This work considers temporal relationships between consecutive snapshots of informative market data and mood time series for market price prediction. We calculate the sentiment mood time series via the probability distribution of news embedding generated through a BERT-based transformer language model fine-tuned for financial domain sentiment analysis. We then use a deep recurrent neural network for feature extraction followed by a dense layer for price regression. We implemented our approach as an open-source API for real-time price regression. We build a corpus of financial news related to currency pairs in foreign exchange and Cryptocurrency markets. We further augment our model with informative technical indicators and news sentiment scores aligned based on news release timestamp. Results of our experiments show significant error reduction compared to the baselines. Our Financial News and Financial Sentiment Analysis RESTFul APIs are available for public use. •A financial market predictive model leveraging mood time series and informative market data.•Analysis of information gain of market data and mood in specialized financial newsgroups for price prediction.•A dataset including over 33 month of market and news data and open source real time market prediction tool.