Tracking habitat or testing its suitability? Similar distributional patterns can hide very different histories of persistence versus nonequilibrium dynamics

The expansions and contractions of a species’ range in response to temporal changes in selective filters leave genetic signatures that can inform a more accurate reconstruction of their evolutionary history across the landscape. After a long period of continental decline, Australian rainforests settled into localized patterns of contraction or expansion during the climatic fluctuations of the Quaternary. The environmental impacts of recurring glacial and interglacial periods also intensified the arrival of new lineages from the Sunda shelf, and it can be expected that immigrant versus locally persistent taxa responded to environmental challenges in quantifiably different manner. To investigate how such differences impact on species’ distribution, we contrast landscape genomic patterns and changes in habitat availability between a species with a long continental history on Doryphora sassafras and a Sunda‐derived species (Toona ciliata), across a distributional overlap. Extensive landscape‐level homogeneity across chloroplast and nuclear genomes for the Sunda‐derived T. ciliata, characterize the genetic signature of a very recent invasion and a rapid southern “exploratory” expansion that had not been previously recorded in the Australian flora (i.e., of Gondwanan origin or Sahul‐derived). In contrast, D. sassafras is consistent with other Sahul‐derived species characterized by strong geographical divergence and regional differentiation. Interestingly, our findings suggest that admixture between genetically divergent populations during expansion events might be a contributing factor to the successful colonization of novel habitats. Overall, this study identifies some of the mechanisms regulating the rearrangements in species distributions and assemblage composition that follow major environmental shifts, and reminds us how a species’ current range might not necessarily define species’ habitat preference, with the consequence that estimates of past or future range might not always be reliable.