Donald Trump and changing rural/urban voting patterns

In 2016, Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election by securing a very large share of the rural vote. In the 2020 election, his margin of victory in rural America was even greater. This time, however, voter turnout in urban areas was much higher, an even larger share of these urban voters cast their ballot for Biden, and Trump lost the election. Analysis revealed that two variables were especially important predictors of county-level voting behavior. Counties that Trump won had a large proportion of non-Hispanic white residents and a low proportion of college graduates. When controlling for other independent variables, the effects of rural/urban residence largely disappeared. Thus, Trump's dominance in rural counties is explained by the fact that rural counties have large numbers of non-Hispanic white residents and lower levels of educational attainment than urban counties. These same variables were important in explaining the vote in five key battleground states. The relevance of these findings for the future of U.S. democracy in an era of deep political division is discussed. •The rural vote was instrumental in Trump’s 2016 election victory.•In 2020, Trump's margin of victory in rural areas was even greater.•Trump’s 2020 election loss was a consequence higher voter turnout in urban areas.•Trump's greatest support came from white, working-class counties.•Relevance of rural/urban variable generally disappeared in multi-variate analysis.