Identifying potentially high risk areas for environmental pollution in the Baltic Sea

The study aims at the identification of areas in the Baltic Sea from where potential pollution is transported to vulnerable regions. Generally, there is higher risk of ship accidents along the shipping routes and along the approaching routes to the harbors. The spreading of harmful substances is mainly controlled by prevailing atmospheric conditions and wind-induced local sea surface currents. Especially, spawning, nursery and tourist areas are considered high-vulnerable areas. With sophisticated high resolution numerical models, the complex current system of the Baltic Sea has been simulated, and with subsequent drift modeling areas of reduced risk or high-risk areas for environmental pollution could be identified. In a further step, optimum fairways of reduced risk could be obtained by following probability minima of coastal hits or maxima for the time it takes to reach the coast. The results could be useful for environmental management for the maritime industry to minimize the risk of environmental pollution in case of ship accidents.