Initial and Final Cell Concentrations Significantly Influence the Maximum Growth Rate of Listeria monocytogenes in Published Literature Data for Whole Intact Fresh Produce

Listeria monocytogenes has shown the ability to grow on fresh uncut produce; however, the factors that control growth are not well understood. Peer-reviewed journal articles (n = 29) meeting the inclusion criteria and related to the growth of L. monocytogenes on fresh produce were found through university library databases and Google Scholar searches. Growth models were fit to each of the extracted 130 data sets to estimate log CFU per day rates of growth by using the DMFit tool. Multiple linear stepwise regression models for factors influencing growth rate were developed using R software. Factors included were temperature, nutrient level of inoculation buffer, initial cell concentration, final cell concentration, inoculation method, container permeability, and surface characteristics. The full model produced adjusted R2, Akaike information criterion, and root mean square error values of 0.41, 488, and 1.61, respectively. Stepwise regression resulted in a reduced model with parameters for incubation temperature, inoculation buffer type, initial and final cell concentrations, container characteristics, and produce surface characteristics. Model fit statistics improved slightly in the reduced model. A further reduced three-parameter model included storage temperature and initial and final cell concentrations, with interaction terms. This three-parameter model had adjusted R2, Akaike information criterion, and root mean square error values of 0.66, 417, and 1.24, respectively. Incubation temperature (P = 1.00E-09) initial cell concentration (P = 3.05E-12), and final cell concentration (P = 4.17E-09) all had highly significant effects on maximum growth rate. Our findings show the importance of inoculum concentration and produce microbial carrying capacity on the estimated growth rate and highlight the overall importance that temperature has on growth rate. Future experiments should consider initial inoculum concentration carefully when conducting growth studies for L. monocytogenes on whole produce.