Estimated Association of Construction Work With Risks of COVID-19 Infection and Hospitalization in Texas

This decision analytical model assesses the association between construction work during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and hospitalization rates for construction workers and the surrounding community. Importance Policy makers have relaxed restrictions for certain nonessential industries, including construction, jeopardizing the effectiveness of social distancing measures and putting already at-risk populations at greater risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. In Texas, Latinx populations are overly represented among construction workers, and thus have elevated rates of exposure that are compounded by prevalent high-risk comorbidities and lack of access to health care. Objective To assess the association between construction work during the COVID-19 pandemic and hospitalization rates for construction workers and the surrounding community. Design, Setting, and Participants This decision analytical model used a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission, stratified by age and risk group, with construction workers modeled explicitly. The model was based on residents of the Austin-Round Rock metropolitan statistical area, with a population of 2.17 million. Based on 500 stochastic simulations for each of 15 scenarios that varied the size of the construction workforce and level of worksite transmission risk, the association between continued construction work and hospitalizations was estimated and then compared with anonymized line-list hospitalization data from central Texas through August 20, 2020. Exposures Social distancing interventions, size of construction workforce, and level of disease transmission at construction worksites. Main Outcomes and Measures For each scenario, the total number of COVID-19 hospitalizations and the relative risk of hospitalization among construction workers was projected and then compared with relative risks estimated from reported hospitalization data. Results Allowing unrestricted construction work was associated with an increase of COVID-19 hospitalization rates through mid-August 2020 from 0.38 per 1000 residents to 1.5 per 1000 residents and from 0.22 per 1000 construction workers to 9.3 per 1000 construction workers. This increased risk was estimated to be offset by safety measures (such as thorough cleaning of equipment between uses, wearing of protective equipment, limits on the number of workers at a worksite, and increased health surveillance) that were associated with a 50% decrease