Change in Hydrological Regimes and Extremes from the Impact of Climate Change in the Largest Tributary of the Tonle Sap Lake Basin

The Tonle Sap Lake (TSL) Basins of the Lower Mekong are one of the world’s most productive ecosystems and have recently been disturbed by climate change. The SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model is utilized to investigate the effect of future climate scenarios. This study focused on two climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) with three GCMs (GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R-CC, and IPSL-CM5A-MR) and their impact on the hydrological process and extremes in the Sen River Basin, the largest tributary of the TSL basin. The annual precipitation, surface runoff, lateral flow, groundwater flow, and total water yield are projected to decrease in both the near-future (2020–2040) and mid-future period (2050–2070), while actual evapotranspiration is projected to increase by 3.3% and 5.3%. Monthly precipitation is projected to increase by 11.2% during the rainy season and decrease by 7.5% during the dry season. Two climate models (GISS and IPSL model) lead to decreases in 1-day, 3-day, 7-day, 30-day, and 90-day maximum flows and minimum flows flow. Thus, the prediction results depend on the climate model used.