Last Man Standing": The impact of candidates for chancellor on the outcome of the 2021 German federal election

The 2021 federal election was special in several respects with regard to the role of the candidates for chancellor. For the first time, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen entered the competition with their own candidate, resulting in a three-way race for chancellorship. In addition, for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, the previous incumbent did not stand for re-election. Based on polling data it becomes evident that in the wake of Annalena Baerbock's and Armin Laschet's misconduct and scandals during the election campaign, both their popularity ratings and the vote shares of their respective parties declined significantly. It was only as a result of these failures involving his two competitors that Olaf Scholz – as the "Last Man Standing" – became the Germans' preferred chancellor. Our analyses also suggest that the CDU/CSU would have done significantly better with Markus Söder as candidate for chancellor and would probably have won the federal election. Regarding the first-time nomination of a chancellor candidate by Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, we find that a preference for Annalena Baerbock had a significant and substantial effect on the green vote.