Nowcasting Real GDP for Saudi Arabia1

Nowcasting Real GDP for Saudi Arabia1

The paper constructs monthly GDP nowcasts for Saudi Arabia by estimating a Generalized Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) on a panel of 272 variables over the period from January 2010 to June 2018. The GDP nowcasts produced in this paper can accurately mimic GDP growth rates for Saudi Arabia, including for...

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Veröffentlicht in:Open economies review 2022-04, Vol.33 (2), p.333-345
Hauptverfasser: Alkhareif, Ryadh M., Barnett, William A.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Business cycles
Development Economics
Economic activity
Economic growth
Economic Policy
Economics
Economics and Finance
European Integration
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Growth models
International Economics
Investments
Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics
Petroleum
Principal components analysis
Private sector
Public sector
Real time
Research Article
Tracking
Variables
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:The paper constructs monthly GDP nowcasts for Saudi Arabia by estimating a Generalized Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) on a panel of 272 variables over the period from January 2010 to June 2018. The GDP nowcasts produced in this paper can accurately mimic GDP growth rates for Saudi Arabia, including for the non-oil sector. Our GDFM has outperformed other traditional models in tracking the business cycle in Saudi Arabia. In our view, the non-oil private sector GDP nowcasts provided in this paper can substitute the traditional set of indicators used to monitor monthly private sector activity.
ISSN:0923-7992
1573-708X
DOI:10.1007/s11079-021-09634-6